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The NFL lockout is finally over and one of the key components of the new CBA is a rookie wage scale. The enormous contracts given (not earned) to high 1st round picks the past ten years based on potential has been absurd. PFDN took a look at the 2004-2008 NFL Draft’s top ten picks overall to see what the teams received in terms of production on the field. The five draft classes analyzed each had a group of top ten players selected or 50 prospects total that were expected (and paid) to make substantial contributions on the field. The results can be broken down as follows: Impact Players- 12 or 24% (12/50). The impact players picked in the top 10 from these draft classes are as follows: Larry Fitzgerald (#3, 2004 NFL Draft), Philip Rivers (#4, 2004 NFL Draft), Sean Taylor (#5, 2004 NFL Draft, note: Taylor was tragically murdered, but he was heading for stardom), Mario Williams (#1, 2006 NFL Draft), D’Brickashaw Ferguson (#4, 2006 NFL Draft), Vernon Davis (#6, 2006 NFL Draft), Calvin Johnson (#2, 2007 NFL Draft), Joe Thomas (#3, 2007 NFL Draft), Adrian Peterson (#8, 2007 NFL Draft), Jake Long (#1, 2008 NFL Draft), Matt Ryan (#3, 2008 NFL Draft) and Jerod Mayo (#10, 2008 NFL Draft) Note: Darren McFadden had a terrific 2010 season, but has yet to prove that he can consistently stay healthy and produce season after season. Note: Sedrick Ellis has been solid, but he has yet to put together a huge season for the Saints. A mere 24% or basically only 1 in 4 top ten picks from this 5 year period turned out to be what the teams were expecting from such a high selection. That is a surprisingly low number considering the cream of the crop is available when drafting so high. Busts- 12 or 24% (12/50). The players picked in the top 10 from theses draft classes that proved to be busts are as follows: Reggie Williams (#9, 2004 NFL Draft), Mike Williams (#10, 2005 NFL Draft), Troy Williamson (#8, 2005 NFL Draft), Adam "Pac Man" Jones (#6, 2005 NFL Draft), Alex Smith (#1, 2005 NFL Draft), Matt Leinart (#10, 2006 NFL Draft), Ted Ginn, Jr. (#9, 2007 NFL Draft), Jamaal Anderson (#8, 2007 NFL Draft), Gaines Adams (#4, 2007 NFL Draft), JaMarcus Russell (#1, 2007 NFL Draft), Derrick Harvey (#8, 2008 NFL Draft) and Vernon Gholston (#6, 2008 NFL Draft) The bust percentage for top ten picks during this 5-year period is quite high. Please keep in mind that this list does not even include players who were disappointments, but cannot be considered total busts. In fact, the vast majority (52%) of top 10 selections from 2004-2008 proved to be fairly productive players (ex. A.J. Hawk, Antrel Rolle, etc.), but hardly major impact players. Many do not consider Reggie Bush a bust, but his production on the field never lived up to the 2nd player picked in the entire draft. Clearly, there is considerable risk in choosing a player very high in the draft. There will always be far too many top ten NFL Draft picks that disappoint to varying degrees. The rookie wage scale was badly needed to at least reduce the financial blow to a team’s salary cap when the inevitable happens.
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