NFL Draft Network

So how are we doing?  ProFootballDraftNetwork.com is all about player evaluation.  Anyone involved in personnel is going to misevaluate some players, but you have to be right far more often.  The ability to identify players who will outperform their draft position is critical.  That is how you earn credibility in this field and prove yourself as a scout.

I produced a NFL Draft Preview DVD in 2005 and 2006 under the title of 4th & Goal Films.  This was a dream come true for me.  I have been extremely interested in the draft and the game of football since I was 10. Unfortunately, the costs to continue producing the DVD became too high and the DVD was discontinued despite having a satisfied customer base.  Many customers sent me kind words that they thought the DVD was the best product in the draft marketplace and I would like to thank them for their support.  The following are excerpts of some of the player evaluations contained on the DVDs and from last year's draft via the website:

S Jairus Byrd, 2nd Round 2009, Buffalo Bills, 7th defensive back selected.
 

Forecast: Byrd was #1 on PFDN's top values list and in our top 32 prospects.  "Byrd's ball skills are as good as any cornerback in the 2009 NFL Draft.  He has excellent hands and can go up high and pluck the ball away from receivers.  His closing burst is underrated as you do not break up and intercept as many passes as he did without a good burst to the ball.  He changes direction explosively which is more important than straight-ahead speed.  Byrd also anticipates routes so well that he does play fast.  He provides versatility as a punt returner and tackles well enough to be a fine free safety.  We would want Jairus Byrd in our secondary either at cornerback or safety because he is a playmaker who causes turnovers."

Result: Byrd tied for the NFL lead in interceptions with 9 and made 45 tackles in 2009.  He started 11 games at free safety before ending the season on injured reserve.  Byrd will play in the 2010 Pro Bowl and was a candidate for defensive rookie of the year. 

RB Marion Barber, 4th Round 2005, Dallas Cowboys, 10th running back selected. 

Forecast: “Marion Barber may very well represent the best value at running back in this year’s draft.  He runs inside extremely well.  He has the power to break arm tackles.  He has surprising speed enabling him to bounce runs outside.  He sees the cutback lanes and makes sharp cuts.  Outstanding balance and a good stiff arm.  He is difficult to tackle.  Barber is a 3-down back and is comfortable catching the ball.  If he lands with the right team and coach he could have a very productive NFL career as a featured running back.”

Result:  Barber earned a Pro Bowl invitation after the 2007 season.  “Marion the Barbarion” outplayed former Cowboy starting running back, Julius Jones.  His bruising runs and ability to find the end zone energize the Dallas offense.

DE Justin Tuck, 3rd Round 2005, New York Giants, 7th defensive end selected

Forecast:  “We think DE Justin Tuck has as much upside pass rushing potential as any player in this year’s draft. Tuck is cat-quick with a great first step and change of direction.  He has the speed to pursue and chase down ball carriers from the backside.  Justin can turn the corner on an outside rush.  The way he makes his pass rush moves look easy, along with his build, reminds us of Charles Haley.  He is a player with terrific pass rush tools and would be a 3rd round draft choice with a lot of potential.  We see him starting his career as a situational pass rusher and, with the right circumstances, developing into an every down player.”

Result:  Tuck had a breakout season with 10 sacks in 2007.  He had 2 sacks in the Super Bowl and contributed heavily as an outstanding situational pass rusher in New York’s championship season.

LB Kirk Morrison, 3rd Round 2005, Oakland Raiders, 12th linebacker selected

Forecast: “Without blazing speed, Kirk compensates by being a powerful tackler and always seems to be around the ball.  We think he is a steal as a 4th or 5th round draft choice. With a defense with speed on the outside, Kirk will fit right in and be a productive player for many years.  He has the intangibles and love for the game that many players have used to overcome subpar 40’s.”

Result:  Morrison has been a productive starter since his rookie year and has emerged as a leader on the Raiders’ defense.  He has led the team in tackles three straight years and is considered one of the better young inside linebackers in the league.

OT Marcus McNeill, 2nd Round 2006, San Diego Chargers, 7th offensive lineman selected

Forecast: “He (McNeill) doesn’t bury defenders in run blocking, but he gets the job done and he hustles downfield real well.  Marcus’s greatest strength may be his football savvy.  He reads defenses and picks up stunts and blitzes in a flash.  Marcus McNeill’s size, athleticism and smarts will make him a high achieving NFL tackle.  He’ll represent excellent value towards the latter stages of Round 1.”

Result: McNeill went to the Pro Bowl his first two years in the league.  He was only the 3rd rookie offensive lineman to earn a Pro Bowl invitation in league history.  Marcus allowed only 2 sacks in 494 pass plays during his rookie year!  This should not have been surprising as he gave up only 1 sack while at Auburn where he was a 4 year starter.  Many teams downgraded McNeill during the 2006 draft due to medical concerns regarding his back.  Some felt he was a finesse waist-bender who would not be an elite left tackle.  We did our research and concluded that McNeill wasn’t having problems in practice or the games and any physical concerns were overblown.  We also observed on film a huge man with unusual athletic ability with no character concerns.

RB Maurice Jones-Drew, 2nd Round 2006, Jacksonville Jaguars, 6th running back selected

Forecast:  “Tailback Maurice Drew must get tired of people thinking he’s too small to be more than a kick return specialist in the NFL. He has exceptional quickness, balance and shifty moves.  He could play, in the right offense, a role similar to the Eagles’ Brian Westbrook or former Giant, Dave Meggett. The most underrated part of Drew’s game is carrying the pigskin.  Though he’s just 5 foot 7, Maurice packs a solid 208 pounds on his frame.  He is team-oriented, intelligent and respectful.  An offensive coordinator won’t be earning his keep if he doesn’t figure out how to get the ball into his hands 12-15 times a game.  Maurice Drew will prove the doubters wrong again.  Someone’s going to get a real bargain in the 3rd round.”

Result: Jones-Drew is one of the most versatile running backs in the NFL.  He can run, catch, block and return kicks.  Maurice has rushed for 1,709 yards, caught 86 passes and scored 26 touchdowns in his first 2 years in the league.  Jacksonville has utilized Jones-Drew’s skill set perfectly by pairing him with Fred Taylor to form one of the best running tandems in pro football.  Maurice has averaged 13 touches a game.

WR Greg Jennings, 2nd Round 2006, Green Bay Packers, 4th wide receiver selected

Forecast:  “We see Greg Jennings as a fine slot receiver in the NFL who will also set up his team with field position on punt returns. Jennings adapted to Western Michigan’s pro style offense as fast as any player. His sure hands, quickness and ability to gain ground after the catch will make him a tough assignment on pressure 3rd down plays.  Greg Jennings is one of this draft’s top hidden gems.”

Result:  Jennings has been a starting wide receiver for the Packers since his first game as a rookie.  He has emerged as one of pro football’s up and coming wide receivers after catching 12 touchdowns in his 2nd season.  Our research indicated that Jennings was very bright and would be able to master an NFL playbook early on.  The complexity of the pro game is one of the biggest hurdles college receivers face.

QB Aaron Rodgers, 1st Round 2005, Green Bay Packers, 2nd quarterback selected

Forecast: "Cal's Aaron Rodgers is the most accurate college quarterback we have seen since Troy Aikman.  He consistently puts the ball in just the right spot for his receivers to make the catch.  He is an outstanding decision-maker that rarely forces throws.  Rodgers has excellent poise and when flushed from the pocket he does not panic, but instead calmly keeps looking downfield for open receivers.  His compact throwing motion and quick release impresses us.  Rodgers has both a feathery touch and an arm that can zip out patterns and rifle the ball between defenders.  Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in this year's draft and is worthy of being the 1st pick overall.  He has the mind and the physical talent to be a Pro Bowl player.  The 49ers would be wise to select him and begin the rebuilding process."

Result: Aaron Rodgers spent three seasons on the bench behind Brett Favre.  He finally received his chance to start in 2008 (there is no need to rehash the Favre retire/unretire soap opera) and had an excellent season (341 completions in 536 attempts (64%), 4,038 passing yards, 28 touchdowns and 13 interceptions).  Rodgers is the long-term starter in Green Bay and looks poised to be one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL.

DE Elvis Dumervil, 4th Round 2006, Denver Broncos, 7th defensive end selected

Forecast:  “Dumervil is living proof that great pass rushers are born, not made.  A top running back doesn’t think about cutting, he cuts.  Elvis has the same kind of pure intuition when he’s got an offensive tackle off balance.  His instincts let him make his inside break at precisely the right moment.  The Cardinals’ team captain has skilled hands and is sly at turning his shoulders to keep his man from punching his chest.  He is just too much the natural to overlook.  A smart defensive coordinator will feature him as a situational pass rusher.  He’ll be an intriguing 3rd round choice.”

Result:  Elvis Dumervil led Denver in sacks his first two seasons.  Many teams passed up
Dumervil on draft day due to his relatively small size and lack of an exceptional 40 time.
He has compiled 21 sacks to date, including 12.5 (6th in the league) in 2007.  He has established himself as a defensive end that can get to the quarterback.

LB D’Qwell Jackson, 2nd Round 2006, Cleveland Browns, 8th linebacker selected

Forecast:  “Jackson understands the responsibilities of every position on defense as well as his own, making him a player-coach on the field.  Jackson uses his low center of gravity and tree-trunk legs to keep his feet, shedding blockers with ease.  He has outstanding range and a nose for the football.  Once he locks onto the target, D’Qwell is a sure tackler.  He is destined to be a playmaking inside backer in the NFL.  We rate D’Qwell Jackson as a terrific value in the 2nd round.”

Result:  The Browns leading tackler in 2007 and 2nd on the team as a rookie.  He cracked the starting lineup as an inside linebacker early in his rookie year and has never looked back.  He should be even more productive if Cleveland gets good nose tackle play from  free agent acquisition Shaun Rogers.

LB DeMeco Ryans, 2nd Round 2006, Houston Texans, 7th linebacker selected

Forecast:  “DeMeco Ryans is as well-schooled a linebacker as you’re likely to find.  If you look at the powerful build on this durable three year starter, it’s kind of surprising that he’s only 6 foot 1 and 235 pounds.  And he’s not going to take your breath away with a 4.7 Forty.  But his excellent anticipation and brainy style of play make up for these so-called ‘deficiencies’.  We rate DeMeco Ryans as a top notch 1st round selection with little measurable downside risk.  It’ll be interesting to see his team figure out which linebacker position suits him best.  We wouldn’t be surprised to see Ryans excel as a middle linebacker in the NFL.”

Result:  Ryans is an excellent example of a player who outperformed his draft position.  Although DeMeco had an illustrious college career at Alabama he still fell to the 2nd round of the draft due to less than ideal measurables.  He was the NFL’s defensive rookie of the year in 2006 after leading the league in tackles.  Ryans followed that up by being voted to the Pro Bowl in 2007.  DeMeco Ryans did indeed find a home at middle linebacker and is a big part of the Texans emerging defense.

LB Chad Greenway, 1st Round 2006, Minnesota Vikings, 4th linebacker selected

Forecast: "Chad Greenway has a wealth of talent at linebacker, playing tough against both the pass and run.  He uses his smarts to sniff out whatever plays the offense throws at him.  We see shades of former Steeler great, Jack Ham, in his game.  Greenway is ou rchoice as the best pass defending linebacker in this year's draft.  Against the run, the All-Big Ten selection is a penetrator who spends a lot of time in the opponent's backfield.  Chad is the type of linebacker that you want flying around creating mayhem instead of locking horns with blockers all game.  We spoke with Iowa's linebackers' coach, Norm Parker, and he considers Chad to be the finest athlete he has ever coached.  That's impressive when you consider Coach Parker has tutored linebackers such as, Carl Banks and Dixon Edwards.  Chad needs increased upper body strength and to use his long arms to wrap up on tackles more consistently.  He should develop into a Pro Bowler with his talent and work ethic." 

Result: Greenway suffered a knee injury that wiped out his rookie season.  He returned as good as new and has been a productive starter at weakside linebacker ever since.  He led Minnesota in tackles with 115 and contributed 5.5 sacks, 5 passes defensed and  forced 3 fumbles in 2008.  Greenway has 4 career interceptions (1 returned for a touchdown) to date.  A Pro Bowl selection is likely as Greenway's reputation for being a playmaker continues to grow.

Forecast: “ Williams played his senior season with a bulls-eye on his jersey. Memphis was forced to play due to injury a 3^rd string freshman quarterback and a wide receiver at quarterback.  The defensive game plan was simple-stop DeAngelo.  And the results- 1,964 rushing yards, 19 touchdowns, 6.3 yards per carry and a remarkable five 200 yard rushing games.  He runs low and hard, but with sprinter’s speed.  DeAngelo uses his Tony Dorsett-like acceleration to explode through the smallest crease and is physical enough to bust it up between the tackles.  He makes lightening quick cuts that enables him to break a run to the outside when the gaps are plugged. A smooth North-South speedster, Williams gobbles up yardage, setting a NCAA record with 34 career rushing games.  DeAngelo’s position coach, Jeep Hunter, spoke to us about Williams’ unselfish attitude.  The Memphis tailback insists that his offensive linemen join him in interviews.  A sure sign that he is a star that appreciates the guys in the trenches.  Coach Hunter described the long hours DeAngelo puts in after practice pulling sleds to strengthen his legs, which speaks volumes of the young man’s grit.  DeAngelo Williams is an offensive force and can anchor a team’s running game.  He is among the top talents in this year’s draft and has the character and determination to be a future Pro Bowler.” 

Result:  DeAngelo Williams was probably the NFL's biggest break-out star in 2008.  He rushed for 1,515 yards in 2008 on 273 carries (5.5 yards per) and scored 20 touchdowns.  What is just as impressive is that he did not fumble all season. Williams’ team-first, unselfish attitude enabled him to take rookie 1^st round running back, Jonathan Stewart, under his wing and form a dynamic running combination. 

Forecast:  “Some in the NFL worry that at 6 foot 1 and 258 pounds, Darryl is undersized for the pros.  We’ve seen him rock too many quarterbacks and more than hold his own against top-flight competition to share their concern.  With his high torque motor and impressive skill set we rate Darryl Tapp as a likely 3rd round selection and one of this draft’s best values.”

Result: Tapp contributed on special teams as a rookie and saw more playing time as the season progressed.  He started 16 games in 2007 and had 7 sacks and 49 tackles.

OT Jeremy Trueblood, 2nd Round 2006, Tampa Bay Buccaneers,  10th offensive lineman selected

Forecast:  “We see Jeremy Trueblood developing into a starting offensive tackle with a game profile like Jason Fabini of the Jets.  He’s able to redirect well to counter pass rush moves with his basketball caliber footwork.  A leader on the field who’s vocal about his high expectations for his teammates and himself.”

Result:  The Bucs right tackle started 13 games as a rookie and every game in 2007.  A tough, dependable player who should have a long career in the NFL.

CB Darrent Williams, 2nd Round 2005, Denver Broncos, 13th defensive back selected

Forecast:  “Darrent Williams is an exceptionally quick and fast cornerback who plays the ball well.  Doubts about his size, durability and discipline might cause Darrent to fall to the 4th round where we feel he represents excellent value due to his terrific athletic ability and production.  We see him initially as a superior nickleback and punt returner.”

Result:  Williams was an all-rookie selection in 2005 after starting 9 games at cornerback for Denver and making 2 interceptions and 58 tackles.  He also handled punt and kick-off returns.  Darrent in 2006 started 15 games and tallied 4 interceptions, 86 tackles and was the Broncos punt returner.  He was tragically killed by a drive-by shooting shortly after the 2006 season.

CB Marlin Jackson, 1st Round (#29) 2005, Indianapolis Colts, 6th defensive back selected

Forecast: “has all the tools to be a Pro Bowl cornerback.  We believe there is very little difference in talent between Jackson and Antrel Rolle.  Jackson will provide the better value, as he will probably be drafted lower than Rolle.  His big hits set a tone and provide a spark.  Marlin is a physical corner who will provide run support help.  We like that he rises to the occasion and makes big plays in critical moments.”

Result:  Jackson became one of the Colts starting cornerbacks in 2007 and his physical play is an excellent fit for the team’s cover-2 defensive scheme.  Marlin contributed as a rookie and in 2006 started 8 games at safety filling in for the injured Bob Sanders.  His late 4th quarter interception of Tom Brady in the 2007 AFC Championship game sealed the Colts’ 38-34 victory.  You can make a strong case that Marlin Jackson was the best value of all of the defensive backs selected in the 2005 1st Round (Pacman Jones #6, Antrel Rolle #8, Carlos Rogers #9, Thomas Davis #14 and Fabian Washington #23).

CB Cory Webster, 2nd Round 2005, New York Giants, 10th defensive back selected

Forecast:  “Cory played through knee and foot problems during his senior year.  Cory is a big game player.  He is a cornerback with a nose for the ball.  With great ball skills, he was constantly in position to make big plays.  Cory is a solid tackler with good size and long arms.  He has excellent jumping ability, but does not have outstanding deep speed.  This may prevent him from becoming an elite #1 corner, but his talent and instincts should make him a starting corner or safety.”

Result:  Cory Webster was a disappointment for the Giants up until late in the 2007 season.  Webster returned as one of the team’s starting corners due to injuries.  His turnaround started with a strong game against the Bills when he returned an interception for a touchdown.  Webster was the unsung hero in the Giants surprising championship run.  He played extremely well in 4 post-season games. New York’s defense combined a strong pass rush with a ball-hawking cornerback that they envisioned when they drafted Webster.  His post-season featured 2 interceptions and tight coverage of Terrell Owens.  One of Webster’s post-season interceptions was in overtime against Brett Favre and the Packers in the NFC Championship game.  The pick set up the game winning field goal. His deflection of an on target bomb to Randy Moss late in the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl prevented New England from getting into field goal range. 

TE Jeff King, 5th Round 2006, Carolina Panthers, 11th tightend selected

Forecast:  “A player like Virginia Tech’s Jeff King doesn’t always get his due.  The Hokies look to Jeff for leadership and toughness.  His route running and receiving improved so much that he became an integral part of Tech’s passing game.  He uses leverage and positioning more than raw power to block his man.  Jeff King can provide dependable depth in the pros and has the athleticism to help on special teams. Because he lacks the speed to stretch the seam, we’ve got him in Round 5, but with definite upside potential.”

Result:  King started 16 games in his 2nd year after being a backup during his rookie year.  Jeff responded with 46 catches, 406 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Twenty-five of his catches went for 1st downs.  It is doubtful that Jeff King will ever be a Pro Bowler, but he’s a solid tightend and a consummate pro.

RB Darren Sproles, 4th Round 2005, San Diego Chargers, 15th running back selected

Forecast:  “He is extremely dangerous in the open field.  Sproles gets through a hole quickly with a low center of gravity and strong legs.  We believe he can be an effective change of pace back, catching passes and returning kickoffs and punts.”

Result:  Sproles became the 9th player in NFL history to return a kickoff and punt for a touchdown in the same game during the 2007 season.  He finished the 2007 season 5th overall in NFL kickoff returns (27.2 per) and 7th in punt return average (9.5 per).  He took a screen pass 56 yards for a score in the Chargers’ upset playoff win against the Colts in 2008.  Darren also recorded his first 100 yard rushing game in 2007.  He was overlooked on draft day due to his small size (5’5” 182 lbs.), but has outperformed many backs selected ahead of him.

TE Heath Miller, 1st Round (#30) 2005, Pittsburgh Steelers, 1st tightend selected

Forecast:  We had Miller ranked as one of the top 10 players in the 2005 draft.“Miller can find the soft spots in a zone defense.  He will be a major security blanket.  He is the type of player who will come through with the game on the line.  A cross between Jason Witten and former 49er Brent Jones.  Heath Miller shows a knowledge of and a feel for the passing game.”

Result:  Miller dropped to the end of the 1st round due to surgery to correct a sports hernia.  He was unable to work out for teams and, as a result, was passed over by many despite having a terrific college career at Virginia.  Heath became a starter very early in his rookie year and made a solid contribution (7 touchdowns including the post-season) during the Steelers’ championship season.  Miller caught 47 passes and scored 7 touchdowns in 2007 and is regarded as one of the NFL’s better tightends.

S James Butler, undrafted 2005, New York Giants

Forecast:  “A heady player who understands how offenses attack the defense, enabling him to make smart secondary calls and ensure the entire defense is in proper position.  He more than compensates for his lack of speed with field smarts and good instincts.  James is a leader who has been known to prod teammates to spend extra hours with him in the film room.  He has shown he has the maturity, dedication and self-motivation to get stronger and make a successful transition to becoming a solid NFL safety.”

Result:  I interviewed James Butler and was impressed with his maturity and intelligence.  He came across as a player who would be a professional, study his opponent, know his assignments and could be counted on.  He was rated as a mid-3rd rounder.  Butler slipped through the cracks due to his perceived lack of speed and was not drafted despite a very good career at Georgia Tech.

He made the Giants as a free agent and contributed right away on special teams. Butler became the Giants starting strong safety in 2007 and led the team in tackles in the Super Bowl.  James is not a Pro Bowler, but is solid and the coaches trust him to make the secondary calls.  He will have to battle for his starting spot every year, but far exceeded a number of safeties (Hamza Abdullah and C.C. Brown among others) who were drafted in 2005 and have done little in the NFL.  James Butler is another example of how the draft is more art than science and that physical measurables are just part of the picture.

QB Alex Smith, 1st selection overall 2005, San Francisco 49ers

Forecast:  “The most difficult prospect to evaluate in this year’s draft.  His learning curve will be steep.  An excellent athlete, but at the NFL level he will have to make his living from the pocket.  No one is going to confuse him with Donovan McNabb or Steve Young.  Smith has a good, but not an exceptional, arm.  His release is long and not quick.  Alex is lean at 210 pounds and will need time to mature physically.  His career completion percentage was inflated by Utah’s offense, which featured a lot of shovel and short passes.  The team that drafts him will have to be patient.  We believe the best way to develop Alex Smith is to bring him along slowly like Chad Pennington and Steve McNair.”

Result:  Alex Smith has been a major bust.  He has thrown 19 touchdowns, 31 interceptions, and has compiled a completion percentage of 54% in his first three years. Additionally, he has averaged 3.9 yards per rush and scored 2 touchdowns in his first three seasons.  You obviously expect a lot more from the first player selected in the entire draft.  We had Alex Smith rated as a late 1st rounder and thought Aaron Rodgers was the better quarterback prospect.
However, to be fair you cannot place all the blame on Smith.  He was thrown to the wolves in his first year and has had 3 different offensive coordinators in his first 3 seasons.  His supporting cast has never been strong as well.  Alex Smith was beaten out for the starting quarterback position in San Francisco by Shaun Hill in 2009.  His future appears to be as a backup. 

CB Richard Marshall, 2nd Round 2006, Carolina Panthers, 11th defensive back selected

Forecast:  “Richard Marshall likes a challenge and wants to cover an opponent’s best receiver.  He has a flair for the dramatic, posting nine career interceptions with a Fresno State record -three returned for touchdowns.  And he doesn’t fall off a bit when it comes to run support.  We rate Richard Marshall as a player whose star is definitely on the rise.  A flashy, young playmaker.”

Result: Richard Marshall is one of the emerging, young cornerbacks in the NFL.  He has played extensively since his rookie year. Marshall has been productive with 6 interceptions (2 returned for touchdowns), 148 tackles and 4 fumble recoveries in his first two seasons.

QB Kyle Orton, 4th Round 2005, Chicago Bears, 7th quarterback selected

Forecast: “Teammates play hard for a natural leader like Kyle Orton.  He’s a down to earth, hang out with the offensive linemen type of guy.  Throughout his college career he was stingy with turnovers.  Orton’s decision making is more advanced than most college quarterbacks.  He knows when to audible.  His arm strength enables him to use the entire field.  With good size and a quick release, he can drill a ball into a tight spot or drop a touch pass over a defender.  Against a solid level of college competition, his coolness under pressure was impressive.  We believe he will successfully make the transition to a new offense and the NFL.  His ability to manage a game and avoid turnovers gives him the potential to become a winning quarterback.”

Result:  Orton has settled into being a solid starter for Chicago in his 4th year.  He is a big part of a surprisingly competitive 2008 Bears team.  Orton beat out former 1st round pick, Rex Grossman, in training camp for the starting position.  The game has slowed down for Orton and he is avoiding turnovers, managing the game and gaining confidence in his play.  Orton was traded to Denver after the 2008 season (part of the Jay Cutler deal) and is the Broncos starting quarterback.