Pro Football Draft Network | 2012 Pro Football Draft Analysis

So how are we doing?  ProFootballDraftNetwork.com is all about player evaluation.  Anyone involved in personnel is going to misevaluate some players (Everette Brown being our worst call), but you have to be right far more often.  The ability to identify players who will outperform their draft position is critical.  That is how you earn credibility in this field and prove yourself as a scout.

I produced a NFL Draft Preview DVD in 2005 and 2006 under the title of 4th & Goal Films.  This was a dream come true for me.  I have been extremely interested in the draft and the game of football since I was 10. Unfortunately, the costs to continue producing the DVD became too high and the DVD was discontinued despite having a satisfied customer base.  Many customers sent me kind words that they thought the DVD was the best product in the draft marketplace and I would like to thank them for their support.  The following are excerpts of some of the player evaluations from recent drafts and from the DVDs:

WR Antonio Brown, 6th round (#195) 2010, Pittsburgh Steelers, 23rd wide receiver selected.

Forecast: Brown was evaluated to be worth a 3rd round pick by PFDN and considered one of the top values in the 2010 NFL Draft.  "Brown is an instinctive receiver who is in tune with his quarterback.  The three-year starter at Central Michigan will adjust his route when his quarterback is in trouble and turn some broken plays into big gains.  His quickness enables him to gain valuable yards after making the reception.  The 5 foot 10 and 186-pound wideout is undersized for an NFL receiver.  However, he is fearless running over the middle and runs slant patterns very well.  Antonio Brown has the potential to be a productive 3rd receiver.  His small frame and the fact that he is more quick than blazing fast will hurt his draft stock.  He will have to fine-tune his route-running and it could take him a year or two to adjust to the pro game.  Brown reminds PFDN of former Packers' wide receiver, Robert Brooks." 

QB Cam Newton, 1st round (#1) 2011, Carolina Panthers 

Forecast: Newton was PFDN's clear-cut #1 rated quarterback in the 2011 NFL Draft.  "Cam Newton has more upside than any quarterback in the 2011 NFL Draft.  The 2010 Heisman Trophy winner could be a big headache for NFL defensive coordinators if he polishes his raw passing skills.  He is an intelligent young man who should be able to digest an NFL offense.  He also must learn to pass first and run selectively.  Newton does not appear to be a bad kid (no drugs, alcohol abuse or violence is present in his background) or a lazy one.  It would certainly help his chances if Newton goes to a team with stability in the coaching staff.  Cam Newton is worth the risk of being a high 1st round pick."

DE Aaron Maybin, 1st Round (#11) 2009, Buffalo Bills, 2nd defensive end selected.

Forecast: Maybin was evaluated to be a 3rd round pick by PFDN and considered one of the biggest risks in the 2009 NFL Draft. "Maybin has only one season of good production, but many of his plays came against sub-par competition.  He is a one-trick pony as a pass rusher who has to run around slow-footed offensive tackles to penetrate.  Maybin has much to prove as a run defender and lacks natural size and power for an NFL defensive end.  The former Penn State defensive end's best position in the NFL may be as a 3-4 outside linebacker.  His instincts for diagnosing plays was average in college and he may struggle learning a new position.  He gained about 20-pounds of solid weight prior to the combine and we consider this highly suspect.  His ability to maintain this weight has to be considered a question mark.  Aaron Maybin has raw speed and quickness to potentially rush the quarterback in the NFL.  However, the numerous red flags with this young man make him a very risky 1st round pick." 

S Jairus Byrd, 2nd Round (#42) 2009, Buffalo Bills, 7th defensive back selected.
 

Forecast: Byrd was #1 on PFDN's top values list and in our top 32 prospects.  "Byrd's ball skills are as good as any cornerback in the 2009 NFL Draft.  He has excellent hands and can go up high and pluck the ball away from receivers.  His closing burst is underrated as you do not break up and intercept as many passes as he did without a good burst to the ball.  He changes direction explosively which is more important than straight-ahead speed.  Byrd also anticipates routes so well that he does play fast.  He provides versatility as a punt returner and tackles well enough to be a fine free safety.  We would want Jairus Byrd in our secondary either at cornerback or safety because he is a playmaker who causes turnovers."

QB Sam Bradford,1st Round (#1) 2010, St. Louis Rams, 1st quarterback selected.

Forecast: PFDN viewed Bradford as a special quarterback who does not come along very often.  "Sam Bradford is the clear-cut top quarterback in the 2010 NFL Draft.  He is cool under pressure and keeps scanning the field for open receivers.  Bradford is a perfectionist who studies a lot of film and is always looking to improve.  A cannon for an arm and a big body are not the most important traits to being a productive quarterback in the NFL.  A quick mind and release are far more important.  Accuracy is also critical.  Bradford has these essential qualities to be successful in the NFL.  His durability concerns are a bit overblown.  Bradford's shoulder surgery was not as severe as Drew Brees' operation to repair a torn labrum.  Brees came back from the shoulder surgery better than ever and it is likely that Bradford will do the same.  Sam Bradford has the skill-set and instincts for the quarterback position to be a franchise quarterback." 

QB Aaron Rodgers, 1st Round (#24) 2005, Green Bay Packers, 2nd quarterback selected

Forecast: "Cal's Aaron Rodgers is the most accurate college quarterback we have seen since Troy Aikman.  He consistently puts the ball in just the right spot for his receivers to make the catch.  He is an outstanding decision-maker that rarely forces throws.  Rodgers has excellent poise and when flushed from the pocket he does not panic, but instead calmly keeps looking downfield for open receivers.  His compact throwing motion and quick release impresses us.  Rodgers has both a feathery touch and an arm that can zip out patterns and rifle the ball between defenders.  Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in this year's draft and is worthy of being the 1st pick overall.  He has the mind and the physical talent to be a Pro Bowl player.  The 49ers would be wise to select him and begin the rebuilding process."

WR Greg Jennings, 2nd Round 2006, Green Bay Packers, 4th wide receiver selected

Forecast:  “We see Greg Jennings as a fine slot receiver in the NFL who will also set up his team with field position on punt returns. Jennings adapted to Western Michigan’s pro style offense as fast as any player. His sure hands, quickness and ability to gain ground after the catch will make him a tough assignment on pressure 3rd down plays.  Greg Jennings is one of this draft’s top hidden gems.”

DE Justin Tuck, 3rd Round 2005, New York Giants, 7th defensive end selected

Forecast:  “We think DE Justin Tuck has as much upside pass rushing potential as any player in this year’s draft. Tuck is cat-quick with a great first step and change of direction.  He has the speed to pursue and chase down ball carriers from the backside.  Justin can turn the corner on an outside rush.  The way he makes his pass rush moves look easy, along with his build, reminds us of Charles Haley.  He is a player with terrific pass rush tools and would be a 3rd round draft choice with a lot of potential.  We see him starting his career as a situational pass rusher and, with the right circumstances, developing into an every down player.”

DE Elvis Dumervil, 4th Round 2006, Denver Broncos, 7th defensive end selected

Forecast:  “Dumervil is living proof that great pass rushers are born, not made.  A top running back doesn’t think about cutting, he cuts.  Elvis has the same kind of pure intuition when he’s got an offensive tackle off balance.  His instincts let him make his inside break at precisely the right moment.  The Cardinals’ team captain has skilled hands and is sly at turning his shoulders to keep his man from punching his chest.  He is just too much the natural to overlook.  A smart defensive coordinator will feature him as a situational pass rusher.  He’ll be an intriguing 3rd round choice.”

RB Maurice Jones-Drew, 2nd Round 2006, Jacksonville Jaguars, 6th running back selected

Forecast:  “Tailback Maurice Drew must get tired of people thinking he’s too small to be more than a kick return specialist in the NFL. He has exceptional quickness, balance and shifty moves.  He could play, in the right offense, a role similar to the Eagles’ Brian Westbrook or former Giant, Dave Meggett. The most underrated part of Drew’s game is carrying the pigskin.  Though he’s just 5 foot 7, Maurice packs a solid 208 pounds on his frame.  He is team-oriented, intelligent and respectful.  An offensive coordinator won’t be earning his keep if he doesn’t figure out how to get the ball into his hands 12-15 times a game.  Maurice Drew will prove the doubters wrong again.  Someone’s going to get a real bargain in the 3rd round.”

OT Marcus McNeill, 2nd Round 2006, San Diego Chargers, 7th offensive lineman selected

Forecast: “He (McNeill) doesn’t bury defenders in run blocking, but he gets the job done and he hustles downfield real well.  Marcus’s greatest strength may be his football savvy.  He reads defenses and picks up stunts and blitzes in a flash.  Marcus McNeill’s size, athleticism and smarts will make him a high achieving NFL tackle.  He’ll represent excellent value towards the latter stages of Round 1.”

RB Marion Barber, 4th Round 2005, Dallas Cowboys, 10th running back selected. 

Forecast: “Marion Barber may very well represent the best value at running back in this year’s draft.  He runs inside extremely well.  He has the power to break arm tackles.  He has surprising speed enabling him to bounce runs outside.  He sees the cutback lanes and makes sharp cuts.  Outstanding balance and a good stiff arm.  He is difficult to tackle.  Barber is a 3-down back and is comfortable catching the ball.  If he lands with the right team and coach he could have a very productive NFL career as a featured running back.”

LB Kirk Morrison, 3rd Round 2005, Oakland Raiders, 12th linebacker selected

Forecast: “Without blazing speed, Kirk compensates by being a powerful tackler and always seems to be around the ball.  We think he is a steal as a 4th or 5th round draft choice. With a defense with speed on the outside, Kirk will fit right in and be a productive player for many years.  He has the intangibles and love for the game that many players have used to overcome subpar 40’s.”

LB D’Qwell Jackson, 2nd Round 2006, Cleveland Browns, 8th linebacker selected

Forecast:  “Jackson understands the responsibilities of every position on defense as well as his own, making him a player-coach on the field.  Jackson uses his low center of gravity and tree-trunk legs to keep his feet, shedding blockers with ease.  He has outstanding range and a nose for the football.  Once he locks onto the target, D’Qwell is a sure tackler.  He is destined to be a playmaking inside backer in the NFL.  We rate D’Qwell Jackson as a terrific value in the 2nd round.”

LB DeMeco Ryans, 2nd Round 2006, Houston Texans, 7th linebacker selected

Forecast:  “DeMeco Ryans is as well-schooled a linebacker as you’re likely to find.  If you look at the powerful build on this durable three year starter, it’s kind of surprising that he’s only 6 foot 1 and 235 pounds.  And he’s not going to take your breath away with a 4.7 Forty.  But his excellent anticipation and brainy style of play make up for these so-called ‘deficiencies’.  We rate DeMeco Ryans as a top notch 1st round selection with little measurable downside risk.  It’ll be interesting to see his team figure out which linebacker position suits him best.  We wouldn’t be surprised to see Ryans excel as a middle linebacker in the NFL.”

LB Chad Greenway, 1st Round 2006, Minnesota Vikings, 4th linebacker selected

Forecast: "Chad Greenway has a wealth of talent at linebacker, playing tough against both the pass and run.  He uses his smarts to sniff out whatever plays the offense throws at him.  We see shades of former Steeler great, Jack Ham, in his game.  Greenway is ou rchoice as the best pass defending linebacker in this year's draft.  Against the run, the All-Big Ten selection is a penetrator who spends a lot of time in the opponent's backfield.  Chad is the type of linebacker that you want flying around creating mayhem instead of locking horns with blockers all game.  We spoke with Iowa's linebackers' coach, Norm Parker, and he considers Chad to be the finest athlete he has ever coached.  That's impressive when you consider Coach Parker has tutored linebackers such as, Carl Banks and Dixon Edwards.  Chad needs increased upper body strength and to use his long arms to wrap up on tackles more consistently.  He should develop into a Pro Bowler with his talent and work ethic." 

Forecast: “ Williams played his senior season with a bulls-eye on his jersey. Memphis was forced to play due to injury a 3^rd string freshman quarterback and a wide receiver at quarterback.  The defensive game plan was simple-stop DeAngelo.  And the results- 1,964 rushing yards, 19 touchdowns, 6.3 yards per carry and a remarkable five 200 yard rushing games.  He runs low and hard, but with sprinter’s speed.  DeAngelo uses his Tony Dorsett-like acceleration to explode through the smallest crease and is physical enough to bust it up between the tackles.  He makes lightening quick cuts that enables him to break a run to the outside when the gaps are plugged. A smooth North-South speedster, Williams gobbles up yardage, setting a NCAA record with 34 career rushing games.  DeAngelo’s position coach, Jeep Hunter, spoke to us about Williams’ unselfish attitude.  The Memphis tailback insists that his offensive linemen join him in interviews.  A sure sign that he is a star that appreciates the guys in the trenches.  Coach Hunter described the long hours DeAngelo puts in after practice pulling sleds to strengthen his legs, which speaks volumes of the young man’s grit.  DeAngelo Williams is an offensive force and can anchor a team’s running game.  He is among the top talents in this year’s draft and has the character and determination to be a future Pro Bowler.” 

Forecast:  “Some in the NFL worry that at 6 foot 1 and 258 pounds, Darryl is undersized for the pros.  We’ve seen him rock too many quarterbacks and more than hold his own against top-flight competition to share their concern.  With his high torque motor and impressive skill set we rate Darryl Tapp as a likely 3rd round selection and one of this draft’s best values.”

OT Jeremy Trueblood, 2nd Round 2006, Tampa Bay Buccaneers,  10th offensive lineman selected

Forecast:  “We see Jeremy Trueblood developing into a starting offensive tackle with a game profile like Jason Fabini of the Jets.  He’s able to redirect well to counter pass rush moves with his basketball caliber footwork.  A leader on the field who’s vocal about his high expectations for his teammates and himself.”

CB Darrent Williams, 2nd Round 2005, Denver Broncos, 13th defensive back selected

Forecast:  “Darrent Williams is an exceptionally quick and fast cornerback who plays the ball well.  Doubts about his size, durability and discipline might cause Darrent to fall to the 4th round where we feel he represents excellent value due to his terrific athletic ability and production.  We see him initially as a superior nickleback and punt returner.”

CB Marlin Jackson, 1st Round (#29) 2005, Indianapolis Colts, 6th defensive back selected

Forecast: “has all the tools to be a Pro Bowl cornerback.  We believe there is very little difference in talent between Jackson and Antrel Rolle.  Jackson will provide the better value, as he will probably be drafted lower than Rolle.  His big hits set a tone and provide a spark.  Marlin is a physical corner who will provide run support help.  We like that he rises to the occasion and makes big plays in critical moments.”

CB Cory Webster, 2nd Round 2005, New York Giants, 10th defensive back selected

Forecast:  “Cory played through knee and foot problems during his senior year.  Cory is a big game player.  He is a cornerback with a nose for the ball.  With great ball skills, he was constantly in position to make big plays.  Cory is a solid tackler with good size and long arms.  He has excellent jumping ability, but does not have outstanding deep speed.  This may prevent him from becoming an elite #1 corner, but his talent and instincts should make him a starting corner or safety.”

TE Jeff King, 5th Round 2006, Carolina Panthers, 11th tightend selected

Forecast:  “A player like Virginia Tech’s Jeff King doesn’t always get his due.  The Hokies look to Jeff for leadership and toughness.  His route running and receiving improved so much that he became an integral part of Tech’s passing game.  He uses leverage and positioning more than raw power to block his man.  Jeff King can provide dependable depth in the pros and has the athleticism to help on special teams. Because he lacks the speed to stretch the seam, we’ve got him in Round 5, but with definite upside potential.”

RB Darren Sproles, 4th Round 2005, San Diego Chargers, 15th running back selected

Forecast:  “He is extremely dangerous in the open field.  Sproles gets through a hole quickly with a low center of gravity and strong legs.  We believe he can be an effective change of pace back, catching passes and returning kickoffs and punts.”

TE Heath Miller, 1st Round (#30) 2005, Pittsburgh Steelers, 1st tightend selected

Forecast:  We had Miller ranked as one of the top 10 players in the 2005 draft.“Miller can find the soft spots in a zone defense.  He will be a major security blanket.  He is the type of player who will come through with the game on the line.  A cross between Jason Witten and former 49er Brent Jones.  Heath Miller shows a knowledge of and a feel for the passing game.”

S James Butler, undrafted 2005, New York Giants

Forecast:  “A heady player who understands how offenses attack the defense, enabling him to make smart secondary calls and ensure the entire defense is in proper position.  He more than compensates for his lack of speed with field smarts and good instincts.  James is a leader who has been known to prod teammates to spend extra hours with him in the film room.  He has shown he has the maturity, dedication and self-motivation to get stronger and make a successful transition to becoming a solid NFL safety.”

QB Alex Smith, 1st selection overall 2005, San Francisco 49ers

Forecast:  “The most difficult prospect to evaluate in this year’s draft.  His learning curve will be steep.  An excellent athlete, but at the NFL level he will have to make his living from the pocket.  No one is going to confuse him with Donovan McNabb or Steve Young.  Smith has a good, but not an exceptional, arm.  His release is long and not quick.  Alex is lean at 210 pounds and will need time to mature physically.  His career completion percentage was inflated by Utah’s offense, which featured a lot of shovel and short passes.  The team that drafts him will have to be patient.  We believe the best way to develop Alex Smith is to bring him along slowly like Chad Pennington and Steve McNair.”

CB Richard Marshall, 2nd Round 2006, Carolina Panthers, 11th defensive back selected

Forecast:  “Richard Marshall likes a challenge and wants to cover an opponent’s best receiver.  He has a flair for the dramatic, posting nine career interceptions with a Fresno State record -three returned for touchdowns.  And he doesn’t fall off a bit when it comes to run support.  We rate Richard Marshall as a player whose star is definitely on the rise.  A flashy, young playmaker.”

QB Kyle Orton, 4th Round 2005, Chicago Bears, 7th quarterback selected

Forecast: “Teammates play hard for a natural leader like Kyle Orton.  He’s a down to earth, hang out with the offensive linemen type of guy.  Throughout his college career he was stingy with turnovers.  Orton’s decision making is more advanced than most college quarterbacks.  He knows when to audible.  His arm strength enables him to use the entire field.  With good size and a quick release, he can drill a ball into a tight spot or drop a touch pass over a defender.  Against a solid level of college competition, his coolness under pressure was impressive.  We believe he will successfully make the transition to a new offense and the NFL.  His ability to manage a game and avoid turnovers gives him the potential to become a winning quarterback.”