One of the positives frequently mentioned about some NFL Draft prospects is that they have NFL bloodlines.  There are a number of examples of terrific NFL players who also had their fathers play in the league.  The Mannings (Peyton and Eli with father, Archie) are the most famous example.  Chris Long has not been as good as his Hall of Fame father, Howie, was, but he has been productive for the Rams.  Andrew Luck’s father, Oliver, had an undistinguished four-year career with the Houston Oilers.  Does that make him more likely to succeed than Robert Griffin III? Is there a greater chance of success for prospects with NFL bloodlines?

It does not appear to be much of a benefit.  Chris Simms did little in the NFL despite the exploits of his father, Phil, with the Giants.  Brian Griese’s career paled in comparison to his dad’s, Bob.  Jarrett Payton had a cup of coffee as a running back in the NFL.  His father, Walter, was one of the greatest backs in pro football history.  Kellen Winslow, Jr. has had some success, but not nearly as much as the original Kellen Winslow.  Tony Dorsett’s son, Anthony, was an average safety in the NFL.  It really is a mixed bag.  The NFL bloodlines storyline is more about human interest than a great predictor of future success.

Scouting reports are now available on Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden and Nick Foles.  The ranking of the quarterbacks has also been updated.  The biggest changes involve Ryan Lindley moving up and Chandler Harnish moving down.

Lindley has accuracy issues, but he has an excellent arm and is comfortable under center.  He failed to capitalize at the Senior Bowl, but I am not ready to write him off.  An NFL team may find themselves with a fine backup and possibly more if Lindley really works on his footwork.

I evaluated more film of Chandler Harnish and have concluded that he is going to struggle throwing intermediate and deep passes in the NFL.  His passes just tend to float when asked to make more challenging throws.  Harnish would have to improve his arm strength and throw with much better anticipation to develop into a solid starter at the professional level.  That is a lot to ask.  He reminds me of Bruce Gradkowski who has bounced around the NFL since 2006 as a decent backup.  Harnish may be worth a 6^th or 7^th round selection to see how much he can develop.

Dallas has numerous needs to fill (interior offensive linemen, cornerback, safety and inside linebacker) via free agency and the draft to become a legitimate Super Bowl contender.  You do not hear much talk about the team’s running back position.  However, the Cowboys scored a measly 5 rushing touchdowns last season.  This includes 1 score by Tony Romo and another by 3^rd string running back, Phillip Tanner.  DeMarco Murray scored only twice via the ground on 164 carries and Felix Jones once on 127 carries.  Jones also scored only 1 rushing touchdown in 2010 on 185 carries.

The inability of the Cowboys to run the ball into the end zone is a major weakness of the offense.  It follows suit that the team also struggles to run the ball in short yardage situations.  This forces the Cowboys to predominately try and score touchdowns via the air.  Tony Romo is not good enough to carry the Dallas offense on his back against the better defenses.  He has never enjoyed the luxury of a really strong ground game.  The blame falls upon the offensive line and the running backs.

Felix Jones has proven in his four seasons in the NFL that he is not much of a red zone threat (8 career rushing touchdowns) and cannot handle many carries over a season.  DeMarco Murray certainly had his moments as a rookie until a broken ankle ended his year.  Murray had trouble staying healthy in college.  It would be surprising if Murray proved to a durable back in the NFL who can handle 15-20 carries a game.  The reality is Dallas likely has two 3^rd down backs with injury histories and neither one is built to gain tough yards.

Jerry Jones is notorious for overestimating his players.  He is probably counting on Murray to stay healthy in 2012 and everything will be fine.  The odds of that happening are slim.  Murray, in addition to the broken ankle, missed all of training camp last year with a hamstring injury.   This is why Dallas should jump all over Trent Richardson if he slips to the mid-1^st round.  The running back position has been devalued in the NFL.  Many teams will question the wisdom of spending a top 10 pick on a back.  It would not be shocking to see every team with a top 10 pick look to strengthen positions other than running back.

Richardson could change the identity of the Dallas offense.  The team’s offense would be able to revolve around a punishing running back that wears defenses down.  Tony Romo could pass less, but produce more big plays off of play-action.  DeMarco Murray would be more effective long-term being a 3^rd down back who excels at catching passes and spelling the big horse (Richardson).  Felix Jones could return kickoffs and challenge Murray to see who really is the better change of pace back to Richardson.  The defense would also benefit by the offense limiting the opponents’ number of possessions.

Dallas boasted in 2009 that they had a three-headed monster at tailback with Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice.  They combined for only 13 rushing touchdowns, but Dallas did finish in the top 10 in rushing yards.  The running game helped Dallas win their 1^st playoff game since 1996.  Unfortunately, Marion Barber’s career headed south after that season as his body just absorbed too many big collisions.  Dallas lost a solid physical running back and the finesse-oriented Felix Jones left much to be desired as the feature back.  The combination of Richardson, Murray and Jones has the potential to be much more productive than the briefly moderately successful combination of Barber, Jones and Choice.

The East-West Shrine Game does not attract as high a quality NFL prospect as the Senior Bowl, but there are the occasional hidden gems.  The following players caught my attention the most:

G Brandon Brooks, Miami (Ohio)- Brooks demonstrated powerful hands and terrific lower body strength.  He also moves fairly well for a 350-pound offensive lineman.  It would not be surprising to see him develop into a solid starting guard for an NFL team.  Brandon Brooks reminded me a little bit of Nate Newton.

DE Julian Miller, West Virginia- Miller did a nice job setting the edge and also putting pressure on the quarterback.  Miller was relentless in his pursuit of the football.  He also has a knack for getting his hands up and batting down passes.  He is a candidate to be moved to outside linebacker in the 3-4 defense.

WR Jarius Wright, Arkansas- Wright looked like the most explosive receiver at the Shrine game.  His 41-yard diving reception late in the 3^rd quarter illustrated his speed and route running ability.  Wright is only 180 pounds, but he is tough enough to go over the middle.  He could be a good 3^rd receiver for an NFL team.

TE George Bryan, North Carolina State- The pass catching tight ends receive most of the draft buzz, but NFL teams still need tight ends who can block.  Bryan is a rugged blocker who caught the ball well in this game.  He is pretty slow, but still managed to snag a couple of passes down the seam for good gains.  Bryan reminds me of Jake Ballard of the Giants who has turned into a decent overall tight end despite being big and slow.  Bryan’s lack of speed likely will cause him to slip in the draft.

DT DaJohn Harris, USC- The former Trojan has good physical tools, but had modest production in college.  He flashed the ability to be disruptive in the game, but also was negated too frequently.  Harris is a lackadaisical player with average instincts.  He could be drafted higher than his play warrants if he has a strong combine.

QB Chandler Harnish, Northern Illinois- Harnish has some Bruce Gradkowski qualities.  He could develop into a decent backup for a team.  Harnish is an excellent athlete who can throw on the run and extend plays.  He is in the early stages of transitioning to operating under center and dropping back to pass.  He has an average arm, but he can be accurate on short-to-intermediate throws.   Harnish is a late-round draft pick with some upside.

DE/OLB Kyle Wilber, Wake Forest- Wilber showed that he could pressure the quarterback and beat offensive linemen to the inside.  He needs work at defending the run.  Wilber will have to gain strength or else he runs the risk of being too one-dimensional.  He played outside linebacker in Wake’s 3-4 defense and that is his best fit at the next level.

QB B.J. Coleman, Tennessee at Chattanooga- Coleman displayed an excellent arm and was accurate in the 1^st half.  He can be streaky, but Coleman has the size and arm strength to be drafted.  I will have to take a look at more film of him.

WR/KR Devon Wylie, Fresno State- Wylie is a quality kick returner with the ability to make the first tackler miss.  His small frame and injury history are a big concern, however.

CB/KR Charles Brown, North Carolina- Brown has quick feet and can flip his hips smoothly.  He had his moments covering Jarius Wright.  Brown can also return kicks.  It will be interesting to see how well he runs at the combine.  The former Tar Heel can be overpowered, but he does have some coverage skills.

The 2012 Senior Bowl game will be played on January 28^th.  Many of the best senior prospects in the draft participate in this game.  It is interesting to see if playing well in this all-star game frequently translates into success at the NFL level.  It turns out that numerous Senior Bowl standouts turned out to be disappointing NFL players.  The following is a sample of players from the 2008-2010 Senior Bowls who captured the attention of NFL personnel men, but failed to produce as expected:

2008 Senior Bowl:

QB Chad Henne (Miami Dolphins, 2^nd round, 2008 NFL Draft)- Henne’s strong arm and excellent size stood out during practices and the actual game.  The former Michigan quarterback’s week in Mobile helped move him up draft boards and Miami thought they might have found a long-term answer at quarterback.  Unfortunately, for the Dolphins, Henne made too many poor decisions that resulted in interceptions in the NFL.  The search continues for a quality quarterback in Miami.

DT Sedrick Ellis (New Orleans Saints, 1^st round (#7), 2008 NFL Draft)- Ellis drove his draft stock sky-high with a dominant week in Mobile.  His combination of power and quickness made him look unblockable at times.  Ellis has been solid for the Saints, but he has not been the second coming of Warren Sapp.

DT Trevor Laws (Philadelphia Eagles, 2^nd round, 2008 NFL Draft)- Laws’ motor never stopped during Senior Bowl week.  He was a bit undersized, but that did not seem to stop him.  The former Notre Dame defensive tackle has started only two games in his NFL career.  His attempts to gain size resulted in some loss of quickness.  The Eagles expected much more from their 2^nd round selection.

WR Andre Caldwell (Cincinnati Bengals, 3^rd round, 2008 NFL Draft)- NFL cornerbacks make a lot of college receivers look pedestrian.  Caldwell ran good routes and caught the ball well during the Senior Bowl.  He has had trouble creating separation in the NFL and is only averaging 9.5 yards per catch.  His 6 touchdowns in 4 seasons also is nothing to get excited about.

2009 Senior Bowl:

WR Brian Robiskie (Cleveland Browns, 2^nd round, 2009 NFL Draft)- Robiskie was considered by many to be one of the most pro-ready wide receiver prospects in the draft.  He had NFL bloodlines, ran excellent routes and possessed soft hands.  The former Buckeye lacked explosiveness coming out of his breaks for the NFL.  He struggled making plays and the Browns finally just released him after three seasons.  Robiskie would have been considered one of the least likely draft picks to be a bust after the Senior Bowl.

QB Pat White (Miami Dolphins, 2^nd round, 2009 Draft)- Many raved about Pat White’s playmaking ability and how he could take the wildcat formation to another level after the Senior Bowl.  He lasted one season in Miami before they released him and White decided to give baseball a try.  White went 0-5 passing and rushed for 81 yards on 21 carries (3.9 per) in his only NFL season.

2010 Senior Bowl:

S Taylor Mays (San Francisco 49ers, 2^nd round, 2010 NFL Draft)- Mays helped himself by making a good read and intercepting a pass in the game.  This helped convince the 49ers that Mays could be a factor in pass coverage, as well as being a physical safety against the run.  It did not take San Francisco long to realize their mistake.  Mays lacked instincts in coverage and was very stiff in changing directions.  Jim Harbaugh promptly traded him to Cincinnati for a late round pick in 2011.

WR Mardy Gilyard (St. Louis Rams, 4^th round, 2010 NFL Draft)- Gilyard led all Senior Bowl receivers in yardage.  The Rams thought they found a slot-receiver bargain at the top of the 4^th round.  Gilyard found the physical play and strength of NFL cornerbacks to be a handful.  St. Louis released him after his rookie season based upon his disappointing play and questionable dedication.  He spent the 2011 season out of football.  Who saw that coming after a fine game against the top seniors in the country?

This does not mean that doing well at the Senior Bowl is cause for concern.  Many players (B.J. Raji, Mike Iupati, Matt Forte, Patrick Willis, Brian Cushing and others) looked promising in Mobile and then followed-up with productive NFL careers.  You just have to be careful not to conclude too much from a week of practice and one game.

Trent Richardson has not officially declared for the draft yet, but it would be very surprising if he decided to return to Alabama for his senior season.  Richardson is basically a runaway tank as a running back.  He clearly would be one of the top 10 players in the 2012 draft.  However, the number of extremely talented running backs who suffered major injuries this season has to make teams think twice about selecting a running back with a very high 1^st round choice.

Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles sustained serious knee injuries in 2011.  Darren McFadden has been nicked-up and misses games practically every year.  Dallas lost their promising young back, DeMarco Murray, to a broken ankle.  I think the punishment that NFL backs absorb every week will make teams hesitant to select Richardson high in the 1^st round.

In addition, most teams with a top ten selection will not be interested in drafting a running back.   The Colts, Rams, Vikings, Jaguars, Redskins, Dolphins, Panthers and Bills will pass on Richardson.  The Cardinals, Eagles, Seahawks Chargers, Bears and Titans also do not have a strong need for a running back.  You can also eliminate the Raiders as a possibility for Richardson.  Trent Richardson is certainly an upgrade to what the Bucs and Browns have at running back.  However, Tampa Bay needs defensive help in a big way.  Cleveland cannot be sold that Colt McCoy is their long-term answer at quarterback.  They also badly need a playmaking wide receiver.  It is not hard to see that Richardson could easily slip to the middle part of the 1^st round.  The Alabama star would provide outstanding value in this area of the draft.

I recently updated the wide receiver rankings.  The two receivers that moved up the most were Kendall Wright and DeVier Posey.  Wright has had a terrific season (95 receptions for 1,406 yards (14.8 per) and 12 touchdowns).  He has the speed to get deep and the quickness to play the slot.  His run-after –the-catch skills are outstanding.  The Baylor star is only 5’ 10” and 190 pounds, but he has a powerful lower body and will break tackles.  Wright has some shades of Steve Smith (Panthers) in his game.

DeVier Posey has played in only two games for Ohio State this season due to a suspension.  So, why has he risen so much on our board?  Posey demonstrated his potential against Michigan this past weekend.  He has excellent size (6’ 2” and 210 lbs) and fine game speed.  He burned Michigan for a 43-yard touchdown and would have had another huge play late in the game, but his quarterback overthrew him.  There were several other big-play opportunities for Posey, but his freshman quarterback just missed him.  Posey will be watched closely in post-season all-star games and at the combine.

Here are the wide receivers that dropped the most and why:

Ryan Broyles, Oklahoma: His ACL tear will hurt him in the 2012 NFL Draft, but it does open the door to him being a fine value selection.  Broyles will rehab hard to come back strong.  Wes Welker has come back better than ever after his ACL surgery.  Broyles could be a nice pick-up if he drops into the 4^th round.

Jeff Fuller, Texas A & M: Fuller has had a pedestrian season (63 receptions for 709 yards (11.3 per) and 5 touchdowns) with too many drops.  He has not been able to make much happen once he catches the ball.  Fuller is a big receiver who has been too easy to tackle this year.  He will never be a burner, but a powerful receiver has to be able to overpower smaller cornerbacks and run with determination.  Fuller has played like a mid-round pick this year.

Nick Toon, Wisconsin: Toon has had a good season (52 receptions for 788 yards (15.2 per) and 9 touchdowns), but he lacks a special trait.  He is not really fast, quick or powerful.  He reminds me of Brian Robiskie coming out of college.  Robiskie was hailed by the majority as one of the safest wide receiver selections in the 2009 NFL Draft.  He had NFL bloodlines, was productive at Ohio State and had a solid Senior Bowl.  The Browns spent a 2^nd round pick on him and he did little on the field.  His lack of explosiveness and physical play prevented him from making plays at the highest level of football.  Cleveland recently released Robiskie and he is now playing for Jacksonville.  I have my doubts about Toon and want to see more of him.

Marquise Maze, Alabama: The Crimson Tide’s top target has had a decent year (56 receptions for 627 yards (11.2 per) and 1 touchdown), but I thought he might emerge more.  He does play with a young quarterback and the offense naturally revolves around Trent Richardson’s running.  However, Maze lacks polish as a receiver and does not look like a natural.  Maze can help an NFL team as a kick returner, but it may take him a while to develop into a reliable slot receiver.  An inside receiver has to have outstanding instincts and be on the same page with his quarterback in the NFL.

Jermaine Kearse, Washington: Kearse has dropped a number of passes this season and does not look explosive.  His production this season has been mediocre (42 receptions for 501 yards (11.9 per) and 6 touchdowns).

My favorite part of publishing PFDN is the analysis of the top values in the draft.  Anyone can identify Calvin Johnson or Joe Thomas as a future star in the NFL.  However, it is not enough for a team to hit on just their 1^st round pick.  A football team requires 22 solid starters and quality depth because of the inevitable injuries.  That is a lot of players that must be found.  The successful organizations seem to find mid-to-late round draft choices that develop into good players and sometimes even stars.

An early candidate to make the PFDN top values list for the 2012 NFL Draft is Notre Dame safety, Harrison Smith.  One of the most fundamental qualities needed to play safety well is to be a sure tackler.  The difference between a modest gain and a big play is often a safety bringing the ball carrier down.  The Irish captain does an excellent job of wrapping up and is a fundamentally sound tackler.

Smith has yet to pick-off a pass in 2011 after intercepting 7 last season.  However, he does have 9 pass breakups to go along with 69 tackles so far this season.  The four-year starter finds the football and was tough enough at 6’ 2” and 214 lbs to play some linebacker as a sophomore.  Smith is a better football player than an athlete.  It is possible that he could be drafted in the 3^rd or 4^th round because he likely will not jump or sprint exceptionally well.  He is a player that I will be keeping a close eye on.

The Jets are one of the more disappointing teams in the NFL after losing 3 straight games to fall to 2-3.  New York has a variety of problems with the 31^st ranked offense in terms of rushing yards and the 26^th ranked run defense in yards allowed being the two biggest.

Rex Ryan vows to return to the “ground and pound” philosophy that has served the team well the past two seasons.  It remains to be seen whether the offensive line can block as well as the 2009 and 2010 units.  Nick Mangold has been banged-up and Wayne Hunter has been a problem at right tackle.  The failure of 2010 2^nd round pick, Vladimir Ducasse, to develop at right tackle or guard has also hurt.  However, there could be more that is ailing the Jets’ ground game than just the offensive line.  The Jets believed that Shonn Greene was ready to be their bell-cow back with LaDainian Tomlinson being the 3^rd down specialist.

LT has held up his end of the deal by being productive catching the ball out of the backfield.  Greene is discovering that there is a big difference between being a role player and the main guy expected to carry the rushing attack.  Greene’s production keeps declining every year as he carries the ball more.  He averaged 5.0 yards per carry in 2009 (108 carries) and 4.1 yards per carry last season (185 carries).  The former Iowa star has gained only 240 yards this season on 72 carries (3.3 per) with 2 touchdowns.  Greene has had his best production in the NFL when given some carries late in the season as primarily a backup.  His fresh legs gave the Jets a spark when lead backs, Thomas Jones and LT, wore down towards the end of the 2009 and 2010 seasons.

Greene has looked pedestrian this season and his running style takes a lot of punishment.  This does not bode well for him surging in December and January.  This is when the Jets will need Greene to be at his best with the cold and windy conditions found at home.  New York had to expect Greene to be a 1,200-yard rusher this season with double-digit touchdowns and average about 4.1 yards per carry.  It does not look like he will approach that kind of production.  Greene has been unable to turn the 5-10 yard run into a 25-30 yard gain by breaking one more tackle.  Defenses have studied Greene more since he is now the starter.  He poses little threat on outside runs due to his average speed.  Greene also is not a versatile back who can make plays catching passes out of the backfield.

Rex Ryan is still a quality coach and the Jets will not go down without a fight.  Mark Sanchez may not be Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers, but he has already proven to be good enough to lead New York to several impressive road playoff victories.  The Jets will turn around their season if the running attack and run defense become significantly more productive.  It will be interesting to see if New York still believes that Greene is their lead back after this season.

Dallas lost a heartbreaking 27-24 game to the Jets last night.  The Cowboys were up 24-17 midway in the 4^th quarter and faced a critical 3^rd and 2 at the Jets’ goal line.  A touchdown would have made it extremely difficult for the Jets to come back that late in the game.  A field goal would have given Dallas a little more breathing room.  The one thing that Dallas had to avoid was turning the ball over and losing the chance to at least put 3 more points on the board.  Romo scrambled on the play and decided to try to run for the touchdown after he found no one open.  He allowed the ball to be poked loose while being tackled and New York recovered the ball.  A golden opportunity to ice the game was blown.  Next, the Dallas quarterback made a terrible read with the score tied at 24 very late in the game and threw the ball right to Darrelle Revis for a gift interception.  The short field gave the Jets the opportunity to kick the game winning field goal.

Romo supporters will say that New York’s blocked punt and return for a touchdown that tied the game at 24 in the 4^th quarter was the pivotal play in the game.  There is no question that the blocked punt was a huge play.  In addition, Romo did play well prior to the 4^th quarter and was mistake-free to that point.  However, Tony Romo is like the polar opposite of Roger Staubach with the game on the line.  Romo’s career has been defined by a dropped snap (the infamous loss to Seattle in the playoffs was due to Romo’s dropped hold on a short field goal attempt), fumbles and interceptions at critical times against quality opponents.  It seems inevitable that Romo will goof with the game on the line against the better teams.

Tony Romo is generally a good quarterback and he will finish his career with some impressive statistics in a passer-friendly league.  However, the true litmus test for a quarterback is how they perform in crunch time against tough opponents.  Romo has repeatedly come up short in these situations and that will likely be his lasting legacy as the Dallas signal-caller.